CNN IBN TAMIL NADU EXIT POLL SURVEY 2011

CNN IBN TAMIL NADU EXIT POLL SURVEY 2011

New Delhi: It was perceived as a battle between governance and corruption, with the ruling DMK representing both the qualities. According to the CNN-IBN-The Week post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the backlash against corruption – both local and national, the latter represented by the DMK’s involvement in the 2G spectrum scam - is only a nose ahead of the thumbs-up for governance.

Out of the 234 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, the survey indicates that the J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK alliance is likely to win between 120 and 132 seats, while M Karunanidhi’s DMK alliance will bag between 102 and 114. Given the margins of uncertainty in any such survey, it is obviously going to go down to the wire, with neither alliance assured of a majority.

The poll indicates that DMK alliance vote share is likely to be 44 per cent, which means that it has actually lost one per cent from the last Assembly elections in 2006. The AIADMK enjoys a slight edge of two per cent in vote share, which has been estimated at 46 per cent. That is a big jump of six per cent over its performance in the last Assembly polls.

Tamil Nadu’s poorer sections seem to have given the advantage to Jayalalithaa. While 49 per cent of the lower middle-class favours the AIADMK, the poor have come out more openly in support of Jayalalithaa with 54 per cent voting for her party/alliance. Although a large chunk of the upper and the middle-class has stuck with the DMK, some sections have changed their loyalties and gone with the AIADMK, neutralising Karunanidhi’s advantage.

But the big consolation for Karunanidhi is appreciation for the performance of his government, which has been termed satisfactory by 68 per cent of the voters, versus 65 per cent for the AIADMK government which lost in 2006. Another big boost for Karunanidhi is the free rice and colour TV schemes which have reportedly benefitted 89 and 86 per cent of the voters.

On the other hand the electricity situation is not very good in the state with only 52 per cent saying it has improved in the last five years and this could well prove to be the DMK’s Achilles Heel along with corruption.

The political history of Tamil Nadu can be divided into pre-1984 and post-1984 periods. Before 1984 the Congress and the DMK dominated Tamil Nadu politics even though the AIADMK was formed by MG Ramachandran in 1972 and it won the 1977 polls.

Going by history, the Congress has been a very important player in kingmaking in the state over the years. Whichever party the Congress has supported has won, except in 1998.

Whichever Dravidian party has aligned with the Congress has inevitably ended on the winning side. The strength of the Congress has witnessed ups and downs; in 1984 it secured 61 seats and helped the AIADMK form the government. It joined the DMK in 1989 and helped Karunanidhi storm back to power.

Playing opportunistic politics, the Congress once again changed ranks and joined the AIADMK and forced the DMK to bite the dust in 1991. But 1996, when the DMK wrested power, was not a favourable year for the Congress, which failed to even open its account even though it was with Jayalalithaa.

The Congress-AIADMK alliance managed to oust the DMK from power in 2001. But in 2006 DMK won the Congress over to its side and formed the government.

The surveys make the state too close to call at this stage. Whether the popular notion that the DMK is bound to meet its come-uppance will prove true cannot be known before the EVMs are unpacked and the final vote counted on May 13.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011 by deivam P Mohanraj · 0